The Federal Government has overshot its borrowing target for 2025 by more than half.
In the first 10 months of this year, the Nigeria government is said to have borrowed a total of N17.36 trillion from both domestic and foreign sources.
This figure represents an excess of N6.06 trillion, or 55.6 percent above the N10.9 trillion projection set in the 2025 Appropriation Act.
The entire year’s approved borrowing stands at N13.08 trillion, indicating that the government has already gone far beyond its intended limit.
Data from the Debt Management Office (DMO) and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) revealed that as of October 2025, domestic borrowings amounted to N15.8 trillion, while foreign borrowings in the first half of the year stood at N1.56 trillion.
In addition, the Federal Government recently initiated plans to raise another $2.35 billion (about N3.38 trillion) through a Eurobond issuance — which could push total borrowings for the year to around N20.74 trillion.
When the ongoing pattern of domestic borrowing is considered, analysts estimate that total borrowings for 2025 could hit nearly N23 trillion — about N10 trillion more than initially approved.
Experts have raised concerns that this trend of excessive borrowing amid weak revenue performance could push Nigeria deeper into a debt trap, reduce investor confidence, and limit private sector access to credit, thereby affecting business growth and job creation.
The 2025 budget projects total spending of N54.99 trillion and revenue of N41.91 trillion, leaving a deficit of N13.08 trillion to be financed through borrowing. Based on this, the government’s borrowing projection for the first ten months was N10.9 trillion, but actual borrowings have already exceeded that figure by a wide margin.
According to DMO data, the government raised N11.43 trillion through Treasury Bills between January and October 2025, representing a 4.6 percent increase compared to the same period in 2024.
Borrowing via FGN Bonds, however, fell by 22 percent to N4.04 trillion, while FGN Savings Bonds increased slightly to N40.19 billion. Sukuk Bond issuance also surged to N300 billion, compared to none in 2024.
Experts have warned that excessive domestic borrowing crowds out private sector credit and raises borrowing costs.
The analysts also stressed that the borrowing spree runs contrary to the government’s Medium-Term Fiscal Framework (2025–2027) and the IMF’s warnings about Nigeria’s debt-service-to-revenue ratio, which stood at 83 percent in 2024.
Economist Andrew Uviase described the borrowing spree as “a clear reflection of fiscal indiscipline and weak expenditure control,” arguing that the government’s spending pattern shows a lack of commitment to reducing the cost of governance, despite its claims of fiscal prudence.
Vice Executive Chairman of Highcap Securities, David Adonri, linked the borrowing surge to “unrealistic revenue assumptions,” especially regarding oil projections, noting that while the budget was based on an oil production target of 2.06 million barrels per day and $75 per barrel, actual production has averaged only 1.6–1.7 million barrels with prices around $65.
Adonri warned that “Nigeria’s addiction to debt and fiscal indiscipline continues to undermine consolidation efforts,” despite higher revenues from fuel and foreign exchange subsidy removals.
